Liberal Grace

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Getting bogged down in a Muslim country has completely validated al Qaeda's strategy.

It's almost too horrible to concede -- but is a guy in a cave smarter than Dick Cheney?



OK, all of us have out doubts about the intelligence of Bush. But we've always thought Cheney was the smart one. Lacking all morals: yes. But not stupid.

Then he says really stupid stuff like:
"I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency."external link
This isn't just a big fat lie -- it's an incredibly dumb thing to say.

Is it possible the Cheney does not have the intellectual capacity to make credible analysis?

Consider what he said this week:
There is a third myth about the war on terror, and this is one that is perhaps the most dangerous. Some apparently believe that getting out of Iraq before the job is done will strengthen America's hand in the fight against the terrorists. This myth is dangerous because it represents a complete validation of the al Qaeda strategy. The terrorists do not expect to be able to beat us in a stand-up fight. They never have, and they're not likely to try. external link
What is al Qaeda's strategy? It's to bog us down on their turf.

(This is no great secret. external link)

Of course, al Qaeda knows they can't win us in a nuclear exchange or in a battle of air craft carriers!

Instead, they think they can beat America the same way they beat the Soviets -- in a decade(s) long war of attrition.

So, getting bogged down in a Muslim country completely validates al Qaeda's strategy.

And that's exactly was Dick Cheney has done.

I'm convinced that bin Laden intentionally baited us into Afghanistan and Bush stupidly took the bait. But even bin Laden was probably stunned when the neo-cons stupidly blundered us into an even deeper swamp. al Qaeda had to scramble to get it's fighters into a country they had not previously been allowed in to.

The reason I'm convinced of this is because I listened to the Taliban and their sympathizers talk, even before 911. I have heard them take credit for the fall of Soviet Union because they had them bogged down in Afghanistan. I've heard them say that the ten year war there was just the beginning for them. They were prepared to fight for decades -- even generations -- if that's what it took.

Here's another al Qaeda strategy Cheney probably doesn't understand: al Qaeda is prepared to lose in Iraq.

It wasn't their battleground of choice, anyway. They are only engaging us there because that's where Bush gave them opportunity to kill Americans.

If/when the Shi’a's ever take control of the country, al Qaeda will most likely get the boot. Then, they'll try to bait us into some other quagmire. Waziristan comes to mind. But it could be Syria, Kashmir, Somalia or any number of places.

America needs to be smart enough not to take the bait.

But is Cheney that smart? Are any of neo-Cons? I think not.

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